Research Publication

June 2017

Uncertainty in Economic Analysis and the Economic Analysis of Uncertainty

Lars Peter Hansen

This essay was written for the inaugural issue of a journal Called KNOW, published in conjunction with the Stevanovich Institute for the Formation of Knowledge. I explore why addressing uncertainty in our knowledge is especially important in economic analyses when we seek a better understanding of markets, economic outcomes, and the impact of alternative policies. I also provide some historical context to the formalization of the alternative components to uncertainty and their impact in economic analyses. It has been important in economic scholarship to take inventory, not only of what we know, but also of the gaps in this knowledge. Thus, part of economic research assesses what we know about what we do not know and how we confront what we do not know. Not only does uncertainty matter for how economic researchers interpret and use evidence, but also for how consumers and enterprises we incorporate in models confront the future.

Journal: KNOW |Volume: 1|Issue Number: 1|Publisher: University of Chicago Press |Tags: Uncertainty and Valuation|