Research Publication

December 2015 | Working Paper

Sets of Models and Prices of Uncertainty

Lars Peter Hansen and Thomas J. Sargent

A decision maker constructs a convex set of nonnegative martingales to use as likelihood ratios that represent parametric alternatives to a baseline model and also nonparametric models statistically close to both the baseline model and the parametric alternatives. Max-min expected utility over that set gives rise to equilibrium prices of model uncertainty expressed as worst-case distortions to drifts in a representative investor’s baseline model. We offer quantitative illustrations for baseline models of consumption dynamics that display long-run risk. We describe a set of parametric alternatives that generates countercyclical prices of uncertainty.
NBER Working Paper No. 22000

Tags: Financial Market Linkages to the Macroeconomy, Risk, Robustness and Ambiguity, Uncertainty and Valuation|Export BibTeX >
  title={Sets of Models and Prices of Uncertainty},
  author={Hansen, Lars P. and Sargent, Thomas J.},
  institution={National Bureau of Economic Research}